The Seahawks’ road ahead

By: Chris In: seahawks

26 Oct 2009

D. WareWe all saw the future this weekend – and it doesn’t look good for the Seahawks. 

It appears the Arizona Cardinals are as good as they looked in beating Seattle 27-3 in Week 6. Their 24-17 win over the Giants in New York was their third road victory of the season and served notice that they are still the team to beat in the NFC West.

While the Seahawks are somewhere between the team that shut out Jacksonville 41-0 and the one that was dominated by Arizona, they just don’t look good enough to catch the Cardinals for the division. Or make the playoffs, for that matter.

For the record, Matt Hasselbeck does not agree.

“After a performance like we had at home, I think people have definitely counted us out,” Hasselbeck told reporters last week. “I think there’s a lot of negativity around our team. I’ve heard people that this season is over and we’ve got no chance. That’s ridiculous. That’s absolutely ridiculous. I think … this an opportunity for us to pull together and prove people wrong.”

To prove people wrong and make the playoffs, some think the Seahawks have to win 10 games, which would necessitate a highly improbable 8-2 finish. But even if it can be done with nine wins, they would have to win seven of the final 10. And that would be tough enough, barring a miraculous recovery by the Hawks.

They play four of the next five games on the road, starting at Dallas, where the Cowboys seemed to rediscover their killer instinct in a 37-21 win over Atlanta on Sunday. After a home game against Detroit, the Hawks have to go to Arizona, Minnesota and St. Louis. The best they could probably do in that five-game stretch is two wins, giving them a 4-7 record that would all but eliminate them.

Here’s a look at the percentage chance we give the Hawks to win each game the rest of the way:

At Dallas: 10%. The Cowboys destroyed the Hawks 34-9 last Thanksgiving, sacking Hasselbeck five times and aggravating his back injury to the point that it ended his season. Let’s hope they don’t mess with his ribs this time.

Detroit at Qwest: 80%. The Lions aren’t as bad as last year and will probably have Calvin Johnson back, but their quarterback will either be rookie Matthew Stafford or inconsistent vet Daunte Culpepper. This could be a good confidence-builder for the Hawks.

At Arizona: 10%. The Seahawks have lost four of their last five games in Arizona, and the way the Cardinals are playing, there is almost no chance the Hawks could pull the upset here.

At Minnesota: 0%. This is one of the elite teams in the league this year, and the Seahawks won’t stand a chance against Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson and, ahem, Steve Hutchinson.

At St. Louis: 80%. Even Seneca Wallace beat the Rams in St. Louis last year, giving the Seahawks four straight wins at Edward Jones Dome.

San Francisco at Qwest: 50%. The 49ers have won two of the last three meetings in Seattle, and they are a better team this season. This one will be close.

At Houston: 30%. The Texans should be a motivated playoff contender at this point, and their offense will be hard to stop unless Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are hurt again.

Tampa Bay at Qwest: 90%. The Bucs are one of the three worst teams in the NFL, and the Hawks should handle them easily at home – no matter who is playing for Seattle.

At Green Bay: 20%. Hasselbeck has not won in Green Bay in four tries (OK, 2005 does not count), and the only way the Seahawks will have a chance is if the O-line has come together by this time and the D-line gets pressure on Aaron Rodgers.

Tennessee at Qwest: 80%. Odds are pretty good this game will mean nothing to either team. It already means nothing to the Titans (0-6).

Even if we give the Hawks the home-field win in that 49er game at Qwest, they would finish only 7-9.

The Seahawks aren’t going to be much better this week than they were before the bye, simply because they still won’t have all of their injured players back and the guys who do come back will be out of shape.

They will have to take their lumps in Dallas again (and this time remove Hasselbeck before he gets beat up) and then take advantage of an easier matchup against the Lions to set the Hawks up for whatever kind of run they might be able to put together after the midway point (where they will be 3-5).

Hasselbeck, for one, has not given up.

“We’ve made it a lot harder on ourselves,” he said. “We’ve lost games at home that we could’ve won [editor’s note: well, the Chicago game anyway]. And now we have to do something that we haven’t been necessarily great at: We have to go on the road to win some games.”

NEXT IN LINE

The Hawks will start their fifth O-line combination of the season this week, with Damion McIntosh replacing Kyle Williams and Rob Sims possibly returning at left guard.

The good news – because there actually is some — is that Chris Spencer, Max Unger and Ray Willis will be starting their fifth game together.

With any luck, McIntosh and Sims will be better than Williams and Mansfield Wrotto/Steve Vallos were. And maybe Sean Locklear will come back for Detroit or Arizona. (For your own sanity, consider Walter Jones done. If he comes back to play, it will be a bonus. But don’t get your hopes up.)

With Williams not ready for the big show and Locklear still out, the Seahawks added some depth by signing Mike Gibson off Philadelphia’s practice squad last week. He was a sixth-round pick in 2008 from Cal, where he played left tackle. So the Hawks will probably work him as the swing tackle until Locklear returns.

The scouting report on Gibson: 6-4, 308; tough and physical, but not strong or quick; better suited to playing guard and better blocking for the run than the pass.

TRU MOVE?

When the Seahawks activate cornerback Marcus Trufant from the PUP, whether it’s this week or next, they will have to make another roster move. With few players to spare anywhere, these seem to be the top options:

1)    Put Walter Jones (knee) on IR

2)    Put Lofa Tatupu (chest) on IR

3)    Cut CB Travis Fisher

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Two former sports reporters freed from the constraints of traditional print media write about the hot topics on both the Seattle and national sports scene. No deadlines, no word count, no press box decorum — we're Outside The Press Box.

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