The Pac-10 has been a league of pleasant surprises this year, none more so than Washington’s stunning rise to the league championship after most experts had pegged them as a middle-of-the-pack squad. But there was also California’s return to relevancy and Oregon State’s marked improvement under Craig Robinson.

One thing, however, that has always lacked surprise, is the Pac-10 Tournament. Since its return in 2002, there’s never been a truly shocking upset (maybe UCLA over Arizona in 2003, but c’mon, it’s UCLA!), and only once (again in 2003), has a low seed (No. 7 USC, who was 6-12 in conference play) made the final.

Expect this year’s tournament to hold form as well. But that doesn’t mean there’s not a lot on the line when the tournament tips off tonight. With that in mind, let’s break down what to expect.

Wednesday
No. 8 Oregon State (13-16) vs. No. 9 Stanford (17-12): You may wonder how a 17-12 team falls to the ninth seed, but in Stanford’s case, it’s all about a cupcake-filled preseason schedule against the likes of Yale, Air Force and Hartford that pushed them to 11-0 before they stumbled badly once conference play began. Oregon State is not a very good team, but they play hard, shoot relatively well from the outside and play their 1-3-1 zone with precision. That adds up to a headache for just about any team they face. This could go either way, but I’ve got to pick an “upset” somewhere. I think the Beavers hit their shots and stymie Stanford on defense. Pick: Oregon State
No. 7 Washington State (16-14) vs. No. 10 Oregon (8-22): If there’s a dark horse in this year’s field, it’s the Cougars, whose deliberate style of play and solid defense make them a threat. With a run to the title game, they could re-enter the NCAA bubble conversation, and they should have no problem getting past a terrible Oregon squad to start their journey. This is going to be one of those games where perhaps 6,000 people show up and everyone simply goes through the motions. Pick: Washington State

Thursday
No. 4 Arizona State (22-8) vs. No. 5 Arizona (19-12): The Wildcats are one of those teams for which this tournament is vitally important. Arizona is firmly on the bubble, and would love to get that 20th win to solidify their resume. I’m not that impressed with Arizona State. They play ugly, Herb Sendek-style basketball, and if the Wildcats can find a way to harass James Harden, they don’t have a whole lot of firepower. Arizona, on the other hand, probably has some of the best talent in the league, and I think it uses its superior speed and athleticism to win. Pick: Arizona
No. 1 Washington (24-7) vs. Oregon State: The Huskies come into the tourney on a roll, having won 22 of their last 26, and feel like they have the playmakers and depth to win the whole thing. This is a good matchup for UW, as it will (hopefully) allow them to focus on building an offensive gameplan to neutralize the Beavers’ zone. I can see OSU hanging around for a bit before the Huskies pull away. Pick: Washington
No. 3 California (22-9) vs. No. 6 USC (18-12): There might not be a bigger disappointment in the Pac-10, and perhaps the country, than USC. Tim Floyd does a good job of cheating bringing in top-notch recruits, but his half-court style is not the best showcase for their talents. The Trojans faded badly down the stretch, and desperately need a win to keep their tourney hopes alive. It’s not going to happen against a sneaky-good Bears squad. Pick: California
Washington State vs. No. 2 UCLA (24-7): This is not one of the dominant Bruin teams of recent memory, as evidenced by some surprising defeats (including last month’s home loss to the Cougars), which makes them ripe for an upset. I’d love to see the Cougars knock them off, but I’m just not convinced that Wazzu can come up with enough offense to best the Bruins. Darren Collison and Co. have been battle-tested for several years, and that sort of fortitude will serve them well in a hard-fought contest. Pick: UCLA

Friday
Arizona vs. Washington: If there’s one team the Huskies were hoping to avoid, it’s the Wildcats. UW does not match up well against Arizona, as evidenced by one loss and one-near loss in their matchups this season. Chase Budinger and Nic Wise gave UW fits in the prior matchups, and should have big games again. What will make the difference in this one, however, are all the tough games that Washington has played this season. They’ve been in their fair share of nailbiters; games where they’ve had to rally with the assistance of practically the entire team. I see that scenario playing out again as the Huskies survive late. Pick: Washington
California vs. UCLA: Cal fell to the Bruins twice this season, once in OT, partially because they could not find a way to stop Collison, who penetrated Cal’s defense to score 40 points in the two games. I must admit, I don’t know a lot about Cal other than they like to shoot the 3-pointer, and playing in an unfamiliar arena always makes that difficult. Plus, whatever home court advantage can be gained from the cavernous Staples Center must go UCLA’s way. Pick: UCLA

Saturday
Washington vs. UCLA: Well, it’s no surprise that I think 1 vs. 2 wind up in the title game. UW is the sentimental favorite, and I’ve seen enough of their games to think they can win, but I tend to think that UCLA is going to steal one here. Yeah, UCLA is the “traditional” pick, but the Pac-10 has proven time and again to be a traditional tournament. Pick: UCLA 76, Washington 68