OTPB NFL predictions: Week 7

By: Elliott In: NFL

22 Oct 2009

BrettIf you are one of the millions of football fans tired of hearing about Brett Favre, you might want to go into lockdown over the next two weeks, because it’s shaping up to be a Favre-apalooza.

Unless you’ve been living under a rock you know that in two weeks, Favre returns to Green Bay for the first time since forcing his way off the Packers’ roster. Expect the coverage to be at DEFCON-4 levels.

As a warmup, however, this week the majority of the country gets to see Favre and the Vikings take on the Steelers, a game in which Favre’s virtues will be extolled ad nauseum given the marquee nature of the matchup.

It’s one of the few good games this week as the NFL made the curious decision to put six teams on bye this week. Most of the remaining games are one-sided, so expect our picks to look awful similar …

GAMES OF THE WEEK

Minnesota at Pittsburgh, 10 a.m. Sunday, FOX
The line: Steelers by 3.5

This will be a big test for both squads. The Vikings have started 6-0 thanks to a balanced offensive attack and an aggressive defense. The Steelers stumbled early, but have found their footing thanks to Ben Roethlisberger putting up big numbers. Pittsburgh’s defense will get a challenge trying to stop the Vikings multi-pronged strategy. No one’s been able to run on the Steelers, but without Aaron Smith on the D-line, Adrian Peterson could find some room. If the ground game doesn’t click, Minnesota will try to go to the air, but will have to work quickly to avoid the Steelers’ blitz packages that will try and rattle Favre.

Pittsburgh seems to have rediscovered itself as a passing team, but trying to consistently throw the ball will make the Steelers’ somewhat-shaky offensive line the focal point of the game against Jared Allen and the Williams Boys. If Big Ben gets time, the Vikings secondary has been ripe for the taking. This will be Minnesota’s first true road test (its other road games have been at Cleveland, Detroit and St. Louis), and I think the Vikings are prime for a stumble.
Elliott’s pick: Steelers 23, Vikings 17
Chris: Steelers

Atlanta at Dallas, 1 p.m., FOX
The line: Cowboys by 3

Both of these teams are still within striking distance of their division leaders, but this game is important for two reasons: (1) To gain ground in the NFC playoff race and (2) to determine the conference’s power division. The Saints dismantled the Giants in a major matchup last weekend, and the Falcons can rub it in for the NFC South with a win over Dallas heading into their Monday night showdown in New Orleans next week. Dallas didn’t play last week but gained ground in the NFC East as both Philly and the Giants lost in humbling fashion. The Cowboys have been underwhelming this season, with all three wins coming against teams that were winless at the time. They barely beat Kansas City two weeks ago, thanks to Miles Austin’s 250 yards receiving and winning touchdown in overtime. He is now starting thanks to that performance. Dallas has run it well (third in the NFL), but the Falcons have been stopping the run and have some injury issues on the back end that could make it another big day for Tony Romo and Miles.

That might be the Falcons’ only weakness, though, as Matt Ryan and the offense have been very efficient. DeMarcus Ware, the Cowboys’ best pass rusher, has a stress fracture in his foot, which explains why he is off to such an uncharacteristically slow start (one sack). But the Cowboys are going to have to find a way to pressure Ryan, who has not been sacked in the past four games. And they can’t forget about Michael Turner. This figures to be a very entertaining game (or else a blowout by Atlanta), and odds are the Falcons will confirm that the South is the NFC’s power division this year.
Chris’ pick: Falcons 24, Cowboys 20
Elliott: Falcons

Chicago at Cincinnati, 1 p.m., FOX
The line: Bengals by 1

Ah, the fickle nature of the NFL. Just a couple of weeks ago, the Bengals were the Cinderella story of the league thanks to their surprising 4-1 start. But if you looked close enough, Cincy could have easily been 1-4, so when the Bengals got thumped last week by Houston, it wasn’t all that shocking. Now, with a tough game against the Bears staring them in the face, they could easily be back to 4-3. The Bears are coming off a tough loss in Atlanta where they bumbled their way around the field. I’m not sold on Chicago as one of the NFC’s elite — Jay Cutler’s too erratic, they haven’t established Matt Forte and their receivers are mediocre at best. But for all my doubt about the Bears, I have even more about the Bengals.
Elliott’s pick: Bears 21, Bengals 17
Chris: Bengals

Arizona at New York Giants, 5:30 p.m., NBC
The line: Giants by 7.5

Kurt Warner and the Cardinals’ offense have to like their chances after seeing what the Saints did to the Giants last week (48-27). Last year, Eli Manning took it to his old mentor as the Giants beat Arizona 37-29 in Arizona. So Warner and the Cards surely would love to return the favor as they seek their third straight win. The Cards consider this a measuring stick for just how good they are. The Giants just want to get back to doing the things that helped them win their first five games. One of those things is rushing the passer, which they did not do well against Drew Brees (no sacks). If they can get to Warner, they can win the game. One thing the Giants might not be able to do is run the ball; the Cards surprisingly have the league’s top run defense. History is against Arizona in this one. The Cards were 0-5 on the East Coast last season and have lost seven of eight road games against the Giants. Arizona is much more competitive on the road these days (they have two road wins already), but the Giants will be motivated to get rid of the sting of that buttkicking they took last week.
Chris’ pick: Giants 27, Cardinals 23
Elliott: Giants

THE REST OF THE SLATE

San Francisco at Houston
Elliott: Texans
Chris: 49ers

Green Bay at Cleveland
Elliott: Packers
Chris: Packers

San Diego at Kansas City
Elliott: Chargers
Chris: Chargers

Indianapolis at St. Louis
Elliott: Colts
Chris: Colts

New England vs. Tampa Bay (London)
Elliott: Patriots
Chris: Patriots

New York Jets at Oakland
Elliott: Jets
Chris: Jets

Buffalo at Carolina
Elliott: Panthers
Chris: Panthers

New Orleans at Miami
Elliott: Saints
Chris: Saints

Philadelphia at Washington
Elliott: Eagles
Chris: Eagles

THE SCOREBOARD
Last week: Elliott & Chris 8-6
Overall: Elliott 63-27, Chris 60-30

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Two former sports reporters freed from the constraints of traditional print media write about the hot topics on both the Seattle and national sports scene. No deadlines, no word count, no press box decorum — we're Outside The Press Box.